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Nuveen: Real estate has reached a turning point

Global real estate values have reset and income-led returns mean the investment window is still open, according to Nuveen’s real estate team.

After a prolonged correction after the interest rate hiking cycle of 2022, global real estate values have stabilised and are providing a compelling entry point for investors.

This is according to the real estate team at the $1.4trn asset manager Nuveen, of which $138bn is invested in real estate.

In its latest outlook report, the team notes that global private real estate has delivered eight consecutive quarters of positive total returns.

“Transaction volumes rose 24% year-over-year to $936 billion and with pricing still below 2019 peaks, the entry point remains compelling,” it said.

“Returns are currently income-led rather than capital growth-driven — but this is precisely the point: the investment window is still open for those looking to capitalize on the new cycle.”

They argue that both equity and debt investors are likely to benefit from a strong vintage, with loan-to-value ratios likely to compress further – somewhat de-risking the asset class while providing upside potential.

However, selectivity is crucial as the inflationary pressures from the conflict in the Middle East mean risks still remain – especially if it pushes central banks into another rate hiking cycle.

“Investors who focus on essential real estate — assets underpinned by structural demand rather than cyclical tailwinds — are best positioned to capture growth and navigate the risk of sticky inflation and rising rates,” the team said.

Structural tailwinds in Asia

Despite the rising headwinds to economic growth in Asia, labour markets and domestic demand remains resilient, according to Nuveen.

This is providing legs to consumer spending in the region despite affordability concerns due to rising fuel costs as a result of the Middle East conflict.

Although it is likely flows will slow from a particularly strong rise in investment activity more recently, Nuveen said.

Asia Pacific alternative sectors has been surging however, up 105% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026 on the back of data centres and purpose-built student accommodation.

Nuveen said senior living is also attracting a growing institutional investor base, supported by aging demographics and rising wealth among elderly downsizers.

The living sector now accounts for 9% of total Asia Pacific commercial investment turnover, a 10-year high, as transactions pick up in Japan and Australia in particular.

However, data centres and AI were the standout growth drivers in the region, with accelerating demand boosting data centre demand – drawing significant investment activity.

The first half of 2026 has already surpassed full-year 2025 volume by 25%, according to Nuveen.

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